You say Recession and I say Depression, World War II and yet another bubble.

Recession or Depression. In this day and age the word “recession” is thrown about readily. I wondered what is the difference in the power of a word. Of course being a person who likes to be informed I did a little research. Economics is not a subject I enjoy but I find that circumstance has caused me to strengthen my education.

Did you know that there have been depressions throughout American history? In standard history we learn about the stock market crash of 1929 and that the U.S. economy did not rebound until the war effort of the 40’s. Stocks purchased on margin caused a run on the banks, we moved from the gold standard to silver, lack of credit, a steady drop in prices, less production leading to unemployment.

There was the Great Panic of 1837. What caused this panic? Oddly enough real estate speculation and the federal government’s use of paper money. Not one to let an era go by without having some recognition other then the Civil War, Queen Victoria, the Transatlantic Cable and a myriad of other notable events. The Great Panic moved into the Long Depression.

The Long Depression offers something that is overwhelming. The Long Depression started in 1837 and ended at the turn of the century. During this time there were protectionist tariffs, over expansion and speculation of the railroads. Add paper currency without the backing of gold and/or silver, falling crop prices. The Silver Purchasing Act. Oh do not forget, the increase of production of goods and the lack of markets to sell them in (i.e. the expansion into Africa, Asia and South America). Wow, a depression that brought about imperialism!

I am only looking at this from America’s viewpoint. There were also countries throughout Europe that were also affected adversely. Worldwide “economic conflagrations” is nothing new.

That is the list of depressions what about recessions?

Panic of 1797 –Britain’s economy tank during the on going wars with France
Panic of 1819 - Embargo Act of 1807 caused the downturn in shipping and support industries.
Panic of 1837 – Economic expansion came to halt after the War of 1812. Unemployment, bank failures and foreclosures.
Panic of 1857 – Speculation of the railroads.
Panic of 1873 - Civil War speculative bubble burst
Panic of 1907 – Run on the banks after the failure of a high profile financial institution.
Post-World War I recession 1918– Hyperinflation, war reparations and high unemployment
Recession of 1953 - Korean War inflation. The beginning of the Cold war and the arms race
Recession of 1957 - decline in the purchases of raw, agricultural and mineral materials.
Oil crisis 1973 - OPEC tripling prices on oil and the cost of the Vietnam War.
1980s recession - 1979 Energy Crisis and inflation
1990s recession - Decrease in manufacturing
2000s recession - dot.com bubble!




Now thanks to the businessdictionary.com I have a definition for each.

Recession

Period of general economic decline, defined usually as a contraction in the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) for six months (two consecutive quarters) or longer. Marked by high unemployment, stagnant wages, and fall in retail sales, a recession generally does not last longer than one year and is much milder than a depression. Although recessions are considered a normal part of a capitalist economy, there is no unanimity of economists on its causes.

Depression

Lowest point in an economic cycle characterized by (1) reduced purchasing power, (2) mass unemployment, (3) excess of supply over demand, (4) falling prices, or prices rising slower than usual, (5) falling wages, or wages rising slower than usual, and (6) general lack of confidence in the future. Also called a slump, a depression causes a drop in all economic activity. Major depressions may continue for several years, such as the great depression (1930-40) that had worldwide impact.

Well now isn’t that comforting. I feel after reading that this could be more than your average recession. Why lets take the BCarol depression test!

Do you find that you are budgeting tighter due to the price of goods? _____ yes ____no
Has your home worth maintained value or increased in value? _____ yes ____no
Have your raises increased at the equal rate of inflation? _____ yes ____no
Do you suffer from lack of confidence in the future of employment and the stock market?
_____ yes ____no
Have you or do you know more than 3 person who have applied for unemployment in the last six months? _____ yes ____no
Do you see yourself buying a car within the next 12 months? _____ yes ____no

If you answered yes to all of the above this is a depression. If you answered yes to four or more worry, panic and pray! If you answered yes to three or less you have got it good so thank God! Remember the Great Depression lasted for 10 year and the Long Depression for 60 years.
We have already had two consecutive quarters of recession. Seems to me that there is a value in words… as my grandmother said there were hard times. Gram I am about to learn first hand….

Jews, Catholics and Atheists, the 19th Amendment and NFL Championship

Happy New Year! I have been reminded that I have not posted in sometime… okay months… What could have happened in that period of time nothing and everything. Add some happiness, loss and sadness. Snow, holidays and weight gain that would cover it.

I really dislike this time of the year. The snow is dirty. Cast off Christmas trees are on the curb. The realization of the New Year hits home. Yikes, I could talk about what is coming at us with the vengeance of a Sherman Tank or I can reflect. Reflection wins!

Looking back at 2008 the first and most important thing is the election of the new president. I know for many, many Americans they are not happy with President-Elect Obama but do not forget that for the first time in American history a black man of humble background was elected.

This in a country were in the past the president-elect would not be a whole person but 3/5 of a person. The three-fifths compromise is found in Article 1, Section 2, Paragraph 3 of the United States Constitution.

This in a country that had an entire economy based on slave labor for over 300 years only to be ended in 1865 (13th Amendment).

This in a country were women could not vote until 1920 (19th Amendment).

This in a country were only white, male, property owners could vote. Jews, Catholics and Atheists were not allowed to vote in Connecticut, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and Vermont no matter their color or wealth.

I love my country and I admire the founding fathers. For all their shortcomings and lack of inclusion they knew that changes would need to be made and created a living document. Remember the Constitution? Yes, there are many short falls and so much debate but it is a hell of a system! All this from a group of men who knew not if they would be hung as traitors of praised as freedom seeking revolutionaries.

The curse of Bobby Lane… The above was so serious I thought I would add something that would bring tears to any football fan’s eyes. For those of you who do not know the Detroit Lions went 0-16. Yes, not one win. Nadda. Nothing! This is the worst record in the history of the NFL.

Now you may ask who is Bobby Lane and why is he cursed. No Bobby cursed the Lions.

In the 1957 season, Bobby Lane led the Lions to their 3rd NFL Championship. After several years of stellar playing the Lions traded Lane. Why? Bobby was injured during their LAST championship season. The Lions being clueless traded Lane while he was still worth something even if injured. Legend states that as Bobby was leaving for Pittsburgh he spat the curse "The Lions would not win for 50 years".

This is the 50th year of the curse. If true Bobby Lane had a mean mojo and next year will be better. Than again how could it be worse? Only one way to go and that is up!

How do the Detroit Lions count to 10?
0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 0-4, 0-5, 0-6, 0-7, 0-8, 0-9, 0-10

Hahahahahahahaha!


Personally in 2008 I was baptized. I find that was the most amazing experience of my adult life. God, friends and peace of mind... This was an event that was all about what I wanted and what I wanted to be. Now before you picture a choir singing standard hymns and a cake and punch reception THAT AIN’T IT!

This took place on a Friday night. The music was what I liked. Kirk Franklin and Take 6. I quoted my favorites and even used the word “pisses off” from the pulpit. I served food and mixed mojitos at the gathering afterward in my home. I was true to me, my faith and I feel God was pleased.

The Color Purple
“I think it pisses God off when you walk by the color purple in a field and don't notice it.” Why this quote? It is simple really God gives us miracles and beauty everyday but we walk past them looking for the parting of the Red Sea. Waking up in the morning with the wind carrying the scent of fresh lilacs and the sound of a morning doves cooing. Beauty? Miracles? What do you think?

Maybe as you look back at 2008 you will find the beauty and miracles? When working our way through the daily grind of 2009 we will recognize beauty and miracles? Maybe we will see that our government while maddening is an amazing instrument. Maybe in 2009 we will call those who we care for and remind them that they are our personal phenomenon that makes us smile when we would rather cry.

2009 what will I do with it? Not a clue but I am going to hold my faith in all and see what shakes out. Here’s to 2009, cheers, to a new job good friends, and even medicinal vodka based beverages!